Two other studies have explored fertility in the aftermath of high-mortality disasters. Marriage is nearly universal in Aceh, and marriage and childbearing are tightly connected. As shown in column 1 of Table3, mothers who lost at least one child are 5 percentage points more likely to have an additional birth in the post-tsunami period. These results are consistent with the idea that apart from losing a child as a result of the disaster, our two groups of women are largely similar. The chart shows separately the make up of a population in terms of the number of males and the number of females of a given age at a particular point in time. Panel B draws on satellite imagery before and after the disaster. But what of the fertility rate? Sep. 15, 2021 Throughout history, pandemics have been a key driver of human population change, thanks to mortality and declining fertility rates. Specifically, the experience of mortality may shift preferences toward goals with intrinsic meaning (such as interpersonal connection and community development) rather than extrinsic goals (such as amassing wealth and status) (Vail et al. More than one population issue should be taken into account. Can you predict the outcome? 2007; Ramakrishnan et al. The most comprehensive study involves the long-term impact on fertility of excess mortality in Cambodia during the years of Khmer Rouge control (19751978), when some 25 % of the population died as a result of war-related violence and disease (Heuveline 1998; Heuveline and Poch 2007). Apart from Heuveline and Poch (2007) studying the Khmer Rouge, no other analysis of fertility in the wake of humanitarian crisis explicitly ascribes fertility changes to the mortality generated by these events. A tsunami of this magnitude had not affected mainland Aceh for five centuries, and it is unlikely that most women expected an event of this magnitude to occur again. Hurricane risk, fertility and education, Department of Economics, University of Washington, The effects of infant and child mortality on fertility, Fertility assistance program following the Sichuan earthquake in China, International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, Trails of the killer tsunami: A preliminary assessment using satellite remote sensing technique, The pervasiveness of postwar fertility trends in the United States, Did fertility go up after the Oklahoma City bombing? First, mothers who lost a child in the tsunami were significantly more likely to give birth again after the tsunami relative to mothers whose children survived. 2005; Umitsu et al. 2012). Panels B and C describe destruction to the built and natural environment, using two approaches. The sample of all women is similar to the sample of mothers with respect to exposure to the tsunami and post-tsunami fertility. 2003). Women at lower parities are 11 percentage points more likely to have an additional birth after losing a child than women who did not lose a child. We turn now to macro-level evidence of fertility change. In this specification, c is a community-level fixed effect that absorbs community-level tsunami impacts and pre-tsunami resources. This problem has been solved! For each additional 1 percentage point increase in the population killed, mothers who lost at least one child are 0.460 percentage points more likely to have a birth after the tsunami than other mothers. WebOur approach is based on the work of Ashraf et al. As they should be, differences in the mortality rates are stark. Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. Tony Hirst looks at population models and the effects of changing fertility rates. By contrast, despite predictions of a postSeptember 11 baby boom in the United States (Morin 2002; Scelfo 2002), natality data indicated no such increase (Martin et al. A. This empirical approach is more powerful than relying on temporal variation alone. Access modules, Certificates, and Short Courses. Making the decision to study can be a big step, which is why youll want a trusted University. To investigate this question, we consider two additional pieces of evidence. Fertility may sometimes have increased marginally but, overall, certainly not appreciably; and migration is net zero for the planet, with mostly some out-migration for Finally, to explore variation by socioeconomic status, we interact loss of a child with whether the mother completed high school. It is possible to assess the extent to which families of older women differ markedly as they age out of their reproductive years than they did prior to the disaster. Fertility, mortality, and migration can be a lens to explain many a country's current states. Aceh and North Sumatra were the provinces hardest hit. Methods: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. The resulting tsunami slammed into the Indonesian coastline, reaching some areas as little as 15 minutes after the earthquake. All evidence, then, indicates volitional replacement behavior by mothers whose child(ren) died during the tsunami. By contrast, a positive coefficient on the indicator of death(s) of only older children is almost certainly not working through breast-feeding behavior. This literature considers settings where child mortality levels are relatively stable and volitional replacement is a response to an event about which parents can form reasonable expectationsan orientation with origins in demographic transition theory. Notes: Linear probability models with community fixed effects for all women age 1549 and living in mortality-affected districts at time of tsunami. The longitudinal data support estimation of whether a woman who lost a child in the tsunami subsequently bore another child, which speaks directly to the question of an individual response. Survivorship 4. Improvements in mortality can be made which have no effect at all on the age distribution. WebGrowth through natural increase occurs when the birth rate exceeds the death rate. Demography 1 February 2015; 52 (1): 1538. Parity at the tsunami and exposure to child mortality before the tsunami are a little lower, and the sample is younger and a little better educated, as one would expect with the addition of women who had not yet had children. 1) are quite large in comparison with events such as Hurricane Hugo, the September 11 attacks, and the Oklahoma City bombing. Moreover, reverse causality poses difficulties because birth spacing and parity affect infant mortality (e.g., Palloni and Tienda 1986). With children around today who were born of higher fertility rates yet to reach maturity, the next few years will see more people being born each year than die each year. The most detailed information on fertility comes from complete pregnancy histories asked of reproductive-age women in the second follow-up round, with updates in each subsequent round. Table3 displays linear probability estimates of a birth between 2006 and 2009 for women with at least one pre-tsunami birth. Thus far, when a country develops, the fertility rate drops. Some of these challenges can be addressed by examining fertility in the context of mortality shocks. With inclusion of community fixed effects, mothers who lost at least one child are 10 percentage points more likely to have an additional birth in the post-tsunami periodan effect that is statistically significant. Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics.We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communitiesbut caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Women who are childless or at lower parities will, on average, desire more children and ceteris paribus will exhibit stronger behavioral fertility response to mortality shocks. We document a large increase in fertility after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that is concentrated in communities where mortality from the tsunami was high. 2010). Results from Model 3 using a linear probability specification are presented in Table4. By contrast, the aggregate effect on fertility is substantially smaller than observed after the mortality increases accompanying the reign of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia (Heuveline and Poch 2007), or after World War II in Western Europe. Mortality rates decrease before fertility rates. (2007), using images from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor taken on December 17 and December 29, 2004, developed a measure of destruction to ground cover for a 750m grid surrounding each of the center points of the communities surveyed in STAR (based on GPS). Instead, they more closely align with the events such as the high-mortality earthquakes in Iran (Finlay 2009; Hosseini-Chavoshi and Abbasi-Shavazi 2013). In this context, intentions related to union formation and childbearing cannot be cleanly separated. However, in communities with higher levels of mortality, both groups of women have appreciably higher fertility. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak Describe four properties that we use to predict population sizes. How might that affect population size in just the UK? A positive coefficient on the indicator of at least one death to a child under age 2 may arise either because of a physiological response to the cessation of breast-feeding or intentional behaviors to increase family size. It is important to note that none of these events have caused large-scale loss of life, and thus may provide only limited insights into behavioral responses to the death of a substantial fraction of the population. In the communities with no tsunami-related mortality, about 0.5 % died. About one-third of children under 5 and one-third of reproductive-age women perished, whereas the rate is 19 % among prime-age men. Age structure diagrams 3. Estimates for women with no children before the tsunami are in the second row of the table. (The bootstrapped standard error is 0.21.4) The difference-in-difference for the underlying ages (displayed in the inset table of Fig. In addition to its effect on fertility, child mortality is also important for the human capital investment decision of parents. In recent years, similarly sudden large-scale events have generated significant mortality shocks in Haiti, Myanmar, Japan, China, and India, among others, and are likely to recur given rising population densities in areas increasingly vulnerable to environmental crises (Marshall and Picou 2008; Vos et al. Mortality outside the family might affect fertility through other avenues as well. Finally, community leaders were asked how life had changed in the year after the tsunami. Webbetween mobility and fertility. All models include controls for age of mother splines, ln(per capita expenditure), indicator variables for household ownership of land, and ownership of house, all measured prior to the tsunami. Effects on fertility have been observed at both the aggregate and individual level. The disaster effects observed here (Fig. For these women, the coefficient is 0.578, compared with 0.056 for women of parity 4 and higher. Overall, among the 2,301 women who were mothers at the time of the tsunami, just over 5 % lost a child during the disaster, and just over 10 % of women were exposed to the tsunami waves. However, the effect is estimated to be only about 0.10 additional births, which does not come close to replacing the children these mothers lost, let alone account for the large increase in the total fertility rate after the tsunami. TFR is the average number of children women would bear, if they survive to the end of For this reason, we also include household per capita expenditure and indicators of homeownership and landownership (all measured in 2004, before the disaster). (, Indonesia demographic and health survey 2007, Family transitions following natural and terrorist disaster: Hurricane Hugo and the September 11 terrorist attack, Handbook of stressful transitions across the lifespan, Life course transitions and natural disaster: Marriage, birth, and divorce following Hurricane Hugo, Rural financial markets in developing countries, Tsunami mortality estimates and vulnerability mapping in Aceh, Indonesia, A survey of population in an area of Worcestershire from 16601850 on the basis of parish records, Fertility response to natural disasters: The case of three high mortality earthquakes, The relationship between infant and child mortality and subsequent fertility in Indonesia, From death to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change, Mortality, the family, and the Indian Ocean tsunami, Mortality salience and the desire for offspring, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Agricultural involution: The processes of ecological change in Indonesia, Assessment and prediction of natural hazards from satellite imagery, Studying displacement after a disaster using large scale survey methods: Sumatra after the 2004 Tsunami, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Household consumption smoothing through ethnic ties: Evidence from Cte dIvoire, Effect of a childs death on birth spacing: A cross-national analysis, Collecting data on disaster: Easier said than done, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Measuring the human and economic impact of disasters, Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Government Office for Science, Impact of the December 2004 earthquake and tsunami on birth outcomes in Aceh, Indonesia, Change in contraceptive methods following the Yogyakarta earthquake and its association with the prevalence of unplanned pregnancy, Between one and three million: Toward demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (197079), The Phoenix population: Demographic crisis and rebound in Cambodia, War, humanitarian crises, population displacement, and fertility: A review of evidence, The impact of childhood mortality on fertility in six rural thanas of Bangladesh, Demographic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake, International Conference on the Demography of Disasters, Australian National University, The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions, Proceedings of the Firth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, The white plague: National-demographic rhetoric and its gendered resonance after the post-Yugoslav wars, Gender dynamics and post-conflict reconstruction, Fertility response to infant and child mortality in Africa with special reference to Cameroon, Population dynamics: Equilibrium, disequilibrium, and consequences of fluctuations, Reassessing the insurance effect: A qualitative analysis of fertility behavior in Senegal and Zimbabwe, The impact of war, famine, and economic decline of marital fertility in Ethiopia, The impact of infant and child death on subsequent fertility in Ethiopia, Postnormal science, precautionary principle, and worst cases: The challenge of twenty-first century catastrophes, Inundation distances and run-up measurements from ASTER, QuickBird and SRTM Data, Aceh Coast, Indonesia, Stress and reproductive failure: Past notions, present insights, and future directions, Journal of Assisted Reproduction and Genetics. Column 4 presents estimates for women who were age 2534 at the time of the tsunami. Instead, it may be that the replacement motive extends beyond those women whose children die and operates through social groups, such as extended families, networks, or ethnic groups. Statistician magician, the late Hans Rosling shows you how to collate and animate the data of different countries in these short videos that depict our changing world. For mothers who lost at least one child, a strong fertility response is observed only among those with three or fewer children. This response explains about 13 % of the aggregate increase in fertility. Web[How does infant mortality affect birth rates?] For pregnancies ending in live births, each childs survival status is updated at the time of the interview. Interpreting these results with respect to theory or womens welfare depends partly on whether the pattern represents volitional behavior. In the absence of community mortality, women without children before the tsunami are significantly less likely to have had a child between 20062009 than are mothers whose children survived, and mothers who lost a child are no more likely to have reproduced than women whose children survived. Results do not change substantially, which is not surprising given that the correlation in child and total death rates is over 0.9. How might a low fertility rate model compare with a high life expectancy model, for example, in terms of the overall predicted population profile for 2087? Children under 5 and one-third of children under 5 and one-third of reproductive-age women perished, the. Is based on the age distribution live births, each childs survival status is updated the... Outside the family might affect fertility through other avenues as well births, each childs survival is... Is more powerful than relying on temporal variation alone 2534 at the time of tsunami age.! 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Youll want a trusted University slammed into the Indonesian coastline, reaching some areas as little 15. Fixed effects for all women age 1549 and living in mortality-affected districts at time tsunami... Appreciably higher fertility of reproductive-age women perished, whereas the rate is 19 % among prime-age men of.... Population was projected to peak describe four properties that we use to predict population sizes community leaders were how! Of tsunami to exposure to the sample of all women age 1549 living! Womens welfare depends partly on whether the pattern represents volitional how does fertility and mortality affect population models and the effects of fertility!
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